不确定性下区域规划环评方案优化方法框架研究

为了弥补以往规划环评方案中存在的两个缺陷,构建了不确定性条件下融合型和调整型区域规划环评方案优化方法框架,从而消除规划方案本身潜在的环境影响,且实现了规划方案和环境保护补救措施的系统优化及其不确定性风险决策.同时,从方法学上,基于强化区间优化模型建立了不确定性条件下规划方案和补救措施的双层优化方法.最后,针对郑州市土地利用总体规划(1997～2010年)的规划环评,以生态系统服务功能价值的最大化为目标,以郑州市土地资源、经济发展(GDP)和环境指标(土地承载COD排放总量)为约束条件,得到不同风险水平下土地利用规划优化方案.结果表明:①优化后的规划方案的生态系统服务功能价值高于原规划方案,约为原规划方案的1.45～1.52倍,且完全能满足郑州市2010年GDP目标;②有必要在未来融合型或调整型规划环评融入不确定性优化思想,且需要为决策者提供不同环境风险水平下的决策方案.     

盘龙江上段截污工程社会效益和生态系统服务价值评估

通过背景资料收集、问卷调查、条件价值评估等方法,对昆明市盘龙江上段截污工程的社会效益进行了评估,估算了环境整治后盘龙江上段的生态系统服务价值。研究结果表明：昆明市盘龙江上段综合整治具有良好的社会效益,体现出较高的生态系统服务价值。     

The psychological contracts of violation victims: A post‐violation model

Organizations may fail to keep their commitments to their employees, at times leading to psychological contract violation. Although many victims of violation remain with their employer despite such adverse experiences, little research exists on their responses in the aftermath of violation. This paper develops a post‐violation model to explain systematically how violation victims respond to and cope with violation and the effects this process has on their subsequent psychological contract. Central to post‐violation are the victims' beliefs regarding the likelihood of violation resolution and the factors affecting it. The model specifies how the victim engages in a self‐regulation process that results in an array of potential psychological contract outcomes. Possible outcomes include reactivation of the original pre‐violation contract, the formation of a new contract that may be more or less attractive than the original, or a state of dissolution wherein the victim fails to form a functional psychological contract with the employer. The research and practical implications of this model are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Post‐Ike economic resilience along the Texas coast

The economic devastation resulting from recent natural disasters has spawned intense interest in programmes that promote regional resilience. The economic impacts of Hurricane Ike (September 2008) endured long beyond the storm's landfall, compounded by a national recession. This study analyses the pattern of post‐Ike industrial growth in eight coastal counties of Texas, United States, and identifies sources of resilience and potential drivers of recovery. The results indicate that post‐disaster growth patterns differ from established growth patterns. Levels of resilience vary across industrial sectors, and service sectors tend to lead a recovery. The resilience of the hotel and restaurant sector, for instance, suggests that the presence of relief workers might immunise certain sectors against a post‐disaster economic downturn. Besides the sectors that are generally resilient, each county has its own distinct sectors that, depending on the extent of the damage suffered, tend to perform strongly after a disaster, owing to the characteristics of the respective county's economy.     

Groundwater quality: Responsible agriculture and public perceptions

The chief sources of groundwater contamination on farms come from point sources and diffuse sources. Possible point sources are feedlots, poorly-sited manure piles, septic sewage-treatment systems—all of which can release nitrate, phosphates and bacteria— and sites of chemical spills. Diffuse sources are typified by excess fertilizer leaching from a number of arable fields. The basis of quality standards for drinking-water is discussed in relation to common contaminants present on farms. Samples of drinking-water were collected in 1991–1992 from wells on about 1,200 farms in order to study the quality of rural groundwater in Ontario. Analysis showed that approximately one third of wells were contaminated with bacteria, 14% were contaminated with nitrate, two wells were contaminated with pesticide, but 40% were considered unsafe because of the presence of at least one contaminant. These values were similar to those reported for similar regions in the U.S. There was no significant effect of agricultural practice on the proportion of contaminated samples. One response of Ontario's farmers to information on water quality has been to initiate their own program, the Environmental Farm Plan, which has 23 modules by which the risk of environmental contamination can be assessed. Government policies for agriculture can be expected to influence farming practices. However, the literature suggests that the consequences of policies aimed at reducing environmental contamination are poorly understood, not least because the instruments used for implementation can have widely differing impacts. The need for discussions on the ethics surrounding the relationship between food producers and consumers with regard to environmental contamination is identified.     

高危岗位矿工心理倦怠对注意执行功能的影响

为探究心智游移在倦怠和注意执行功能间的作用机制,有效减少由负性心理状态引起的不安全行为,降低人因事故发生率。在文献研究的基础上,引入心智游移,采用SART范式和AX-CPT范式,以问卷筛选出的100位国有煤炭企业高危岗位作业人员为研究对象,讨论倦怠、心智游移和个体注意执行功能之间的关系。研究结果表明:高频AX试次会引起惯性反应偏向,被试者需要更多的时间来维持线索字母A和解决无效线索B与有效探针X之间的冲突;高倦怠矿工比低倦怠矿工的注意执行控制功能更易受到高频心智游移的影响;心智游移在倦怠与注意执行功能间起到调节作用。     

Out-of-control Olympics: why the IOC is unable to ensure an environmentally sustainable Olympic Games

Although the International Olympic Committee (IOC), the body responsible for overseeing the organisation of the Olympic Games, has placed a high premium on environmental sustainability for more than two decades, recent editions of the Olympic Games have fallen short of their sustainability goals, or have caused outright environmental harm. By applying a new (principal-agent) perspective and conceptualising the environmental harm caused by the Olympic Games as an agency cost, this article demonstrates that the mechanisms the IOC deploys to control Games organisers are ineffective because they fail to alter the incentives of Games organisers towards compliance with environmental sustainability objectives and that recently proposed changes through the IOC’s Agenda 2020 reforms fail to address this issue. In order to lower agency costs, the IOC must increase its control by involving qualified and independent third parties in its host selection process, provide for a clear mandate in the Host City Contract, and introduce credible sanctions that impose a significant cost on hosts for failing to adhere to environmental objectives.     

我国聚氯乙烯(PVC)树脂行业耗汞量削减方案研究

通过对1990-2002年我国PVC树脂总产量和乙炔法生产PVC树脂产量的统计分析,以及对耗汞情况的估算,预测了2004-2014年汞的消耗量,提出了降低k值法(降低PVC树脂单位产品的耗汞量)和降低R值法(降低乙炔法产量在PVC树脂总产量中所占比例)2种削减耗汞量的方案.结果表明:若采用降低k值法,使k值由0.20 kg/t降低到0.12 kg/t,可使耗汞量减少40%;若采用降低R值法,使R值每年减少10%或5%,则8～14年后PVC树脂行业可彻底实现无汞化.最后提出4点建议.      

AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR DROUGHT MANAGEMENT USING THE PALMER DROUGHT INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is used in a non-homogeneous Markov chain model to characterize the stochastic behavior of drought. Based on this characterization an early warning system in the form of a decision tree enumerating all possible sequences of drought progression is proposed for drought management. Besides yielding probabilities of occurrence of different drought severity classes, the method associates a secondary measure in terms of likely cumulative precipitation deficit to provide timely guidance in deciding drought mitigation actions. The proposed method is particularly useful for water availability task forces in various states for issuing drought warnings in advance. The applicability of the technique is illustrated for the Tidewater climatic division of Virginia.     

Chest injuries of elderly postmortem human surrogates (PMHSs) under seat belt and airbag loading in frontal sled impacts: Comparison to matching THOR tests

Abstract

Objective: The goal of the study was to develop experimental chest loading conditions that would cause up to Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2 chest injuries in elderly occupants in moderate-speed frontal crashes. The new set of experimental data was also intended to be used in the benchmark of existing thoracic injury criteria in lower-speed collision conditions.

Methods: Six male elderly (age >63) postmortem human subjects (PMHS) were exposed to a 35?km/h (nominal) frontal sled impact. The test fixture consisted of a rigid seat, rigid footrest, and cable seat back. Two restraint conditions (A and B) were compared. Occupants were restrained by a force-limited (2.5?kN [A] and 2?kN [B]) seat belt and a preinflated (16?kPa [A] and 11?kPa [B]; airbag). Condition B also incorporated increased seat friction. Matching sled tests were carried out with the THOR-M dummy. Infra-red telescoping rod for the assessment of chest compression (IRTRACC) readings were used to compute chest injury risk. PMHSs were exposed to a posttest injury assessment. Tests were carried out in 2 stages, using the outcome of the first one combined with a parametric study using the THUMS model to adjust the test conditions in the second. All procedures were approved by the relevant ethics board.

Results: Restraint condition A resulted in an unexpected high number of rib fractures (fx; 10, 14, 15 fx). Under condition B, the adjustment of the relative airbag/occupant position combined with a lower airbag pressure and lower seat belt load limit resulted in a reduced pelvic excursion (85 vs. 110?mm), increased torso pitch and a substantially lower number of rib fractures (1, 0, 4 fx) as intended.

Conclusions: The predicted risk of rib fractures provided by the THOR dummy using the C_max and PC Score injury criteria were lower than the actual injuries observed in the PMHS tests (especially in restraint condition A). However, the THOR dummy was capable of discriminating between the 2 restraint scenarios. Similar results were obtained in the parametric study with the THUMS model.